This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season. I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line. Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well. Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts. This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.
Agree to disagree? Leave your predictions for this week's game in the comments for this blog.
Season Record (ATS):
2 - 1
Last Week Recap:
Last week was a much needed week off for the WtL staff. After a brutally intoxicating weekend in Madison for the ASU game, the brain wasn't exactly hitting on all cylinders. Although there were some reports of lines being posted on various sites (anywhere from -40 to -45) this was not a game that was touched by most credible sites so we capitalized, got some rest and are ready to get this conference schedule kicked off.
Offense:
UW comes into this game tits a blazing. Against Austin Peay, the UW offense was able to muster 10 TD scoring drives and just dominated the Governors. It appears that the Badgers will have both Nick Toon and David Gilreath back in the line-up this week which will give QB Scott Tolzien a couple more weapons, other than Kendricks, to attack Sparty through the air. MSU enters this game with an almost mirror image of what the Badgers look like on this side of the ball. They have two fantastic options at RB in both Edwin Baker (57 carries, 449 yards, 5 td) and Le'Veon Bell (48, 396, 7) and a proven, steady QB in Kirk Cousins (67%, 863 yards, 6 td, 2 int). Cousins' main targets this year have been B.J. Cunningham (14 catches, 190 yards, 2 td), Keshawn Martin (14, 185, 1) and Mark Dell (10, 172, 0).
Defense:
The Badgers defense has proven to be tough against the run. UW has yet to answer the question of who will fill the shoes of Chris Borland, who is out for the remainder of the season, and this trip to East Lansing will force UW to answer those questions quickly. The ever-present question mark in the Badger's defensive backfield will definitely be put to the test, especially if UW has a 2nd half lead. UW's pass defense will need a little something extra out of J.J. Watt and Louis Nzegwu. Again, MSU comes in with a similar story...tough thus far against the run and suspect in the secondary. MSU's player to watch is LB Greg Jones who comes into this season as a front runner in just about every defense award possible. Jones is the Webster's Dictionary definition of Man-Child.
Key Match-up:
MSU's LB Greg Jones vs UW's TE Lance Kendricks and RB John Clay. Jones is noted for his ability in pass coverage. If Jones can take away Kendricks 1 on 1, that will free up the safeties to work on Toon and Gilreath. If Kendricks can stay a step or two ahead of Jones, it will force the MSU safeties to get involved which will put either Toon or Gilreath in single coverage where UW should be able to exploit them. In regards to the run game, Jones vs Clay is just good old fashioned (brandy of course) Big Ten smash mouth, hat on hat football. This is the best of the best in the Big Ten and the two have caught the nation's eye. Sit back, try to relax and enjoy the fight.
Walking the Line:
UW -2 O/U 53.5
This is the best game in the Big Ten this weekend and the lines across the conference prove it. I'm looking for MSU to come out and take the early lead as they will be energized from an electric home crowd and, more importantly, the return of their coach - Mark Dantonio - from a minor heart attack suffered the night after their victory over Notre Dame. I also expect to see MSU with some early success running the ball before the Badgers can adjust to their life without Borland, call it UW's grieving period. Expect UW to weather the storm, however, and come out swinging in the 2nd half. Although Clay vs Jones is the heavy weight match-up that everyone will be watching, don't fall asleep on the under-card. Lost in the Clay/Jone shuffle is one, Mr. White, who could become Saturday's game breaker (and no, MSU fans, I'm not talking about Lorenzo). I expect this game to be close but dominated by the Badgers.
I like UW -2 with UW's under-card making the difference.