Walking the Line - @ UNLV

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Offense:

UW comes in with all kinds of accolades this season.  A returning QB, a Heisman hyped RB, a deep OL, untapped potential at WR and a real treat at TE.  UNLV, on the other hand, has had a QB competition throughout its entire camp, a returning RB from last season who rushed for 541 yards, 4 returning starters on the OL and not much to talk about as it relates to WR or TE.

Defense:

UW has some potential questions marks in the DL and secondary.  There are good reports out of camp as to how these guys are performing but until it happens on game day, I'm not sold.  UNLV's Defense was terrible last year and could not stop the run to save their lives.  UNLV returns an experience DB crew but experience doesn't always result in good... which I feel is the case here.

Intangibles:

UNLV is at home and comfortable there.  In the past 5 seasons, 81% of their wins were at home.  Weather - Saturday has a high of 107, expect game time temps in the 90's.

Walking the Line: 

UW -20.5    O/U 57.5

UNLV comes into this contest totally over-matched.  With that said, they also come into this game with a new coaching regime led by former Montana Grizzley head coach Bobby Hauck.  Hauck comes into this program with nothing but success in his wake.  He has gotten rid of the UNLV spread offense and is committed to being a physical, run first style offense.  I expect Hauck will use this game (specifically UW) as an example to the UNLV football program of what it will need to be to be a winner.  Expect UW to jump out of the gates early with some early first half points and continue their lead into the second half.  Due to the heat/cramps/potential for injury, I expect to see some of the Badger familiars on the sidelines in the 4th quarter.  I also expect to see Hauck turn to the 2nd qb for a spark in the second half...and get it.  Look out for late UNLV score vs a predominently 2nd string defense on the field for UW.

I like UNLV + 20.5 with a "turned off tv cover".

Comments

[Riverwest Millionaire]

And if all as fails, I'm sure the goons over on the strip will call in for a "transformer" mishap....or a car hitting a electrical pole conundrum…or whatever else bs story they brewed for us back in ‘04. Either way, you're not going to get your money. Assholes!

[Trent]

I'm going with UW to cover. UNLV is in between styles right now. They've got a coach that likes to play a pro-style offense but the players were recruited for the spread.

The offense might not even get to touch the ball that much. Based on the Badgers' offense and UNLV's run defense last year Bucky could pass five bills in rushing yards.

The under on the other hand looks very appealing.

[TK]

Agree to disagree: I see an easy cover for bucky even with vanilla playcalling by Chryst, UW pulling their starters in the 4th qtr, and a late UNLV score. I imagine the Wisconsin contingent in Vegas bumps the spread up over 21 pts- but that's not going to matter. See "inside the numbers" from yesterday- I cant see how UW doesnt run wild against the Rebels. That should make it easy pickings for Tolzien to connect on a few deep play action passes to Toon and company. Not to mention- BB knows the Badgers are in the BCS mix and style points count.

[Beaner]

Keep in mind, Bucky has struggled as of late in their non-conference games under Bielema. For some reason, he seems to lack that killer instinct and takes the foot of the pedal way too early. Time and time again, I've watched him coach not to lose rather than win.

On the other hand, UW is getting a lot of national attention and I think they will come out flying around on both sides of the ball. Yes it will be hot, but I do like UW to cover, although I see a 23ish point win

[Asu]

I hope the badgers are not looking past Unlv toward the Sun Devils. I expect Wisco to be unbeaten in two weeks. Given the prediction for the badger second half collapse, I'm a little concerned about the depth of the badgers.

[d dogg]

Hey Sun Devil fan, sleep well tonight if you have any doubt about the Badgers being 2-0 for that ASU matchup. You may want to do some tossing and turning regarding your own team if having both of us 2-0 for the ASU/UW game is important to you. ASU is boarder line Div IAA this year and will remain there until Erickson is relieved of any duties associated with that team. Sweet dreams.

[Sparty on!!!]

Wesconsin is going to lose this game outright. Rebels want this game more!!! go Rebels

[d dogg]

Hollar!