If you were wondering how a football team manages to lose a game in which they didn’t turn the ball over once, forced 3 turnovers of their own (and converted those turnovers into points), averaged over 5 yards per carry while rushing for 165 yards, and made a 49 yard field goal.....the Badgers provided the formula on Saturday vs MSU. Besides allowing a special teams TD, it was 3rd down, on both sides of the ball, that killed the Badgers.
I call this stat “3rd Down Conversion Differential”… it consists of the Badgers’ 3rd down conversion % on offense minus the 3rd down conversion % allowed by the defense. The statistic encompasses valuable hidden yards of field position, huge momentum swings, precious minutes on the clock in time of possession, and ultimately, in the case of the MSU game, a back-breaking 11 play 70 yard touchdown drive to seal the game.
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Badger Offense: 3rd down conversion % |
Badger Defense: 3rd down conversion % allowed |
3rd Down Conversion Differential |
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Games 1-4 |
53% |
27% |
+34% |
|
vs MSU |
27% |
50% |
-23% |
The Badger offense was doomed from the start when, on the first possession of the game, Tolzien threw to a wide open Nick Toon on 3rd and 6 from the Wisconsin 17 yard line and Toon drooped the ball. The Badger offense went on to convert just 3 of 11 attempts.
Even more disturbing , the Badgers’ defense could not get off the field on 3rd downs- allowing MSU to convert 9-18 attempts. Throw in two fourth down conversions and the Badgers failed to end the Spartans’ drive on 11 of 21 attempts. Unfortunately, when it mattered most, the Badger defense was even worse- allowing MSU to convert a first down on 6 of its final 7 attempts down the stretch. On MSU’s final drive alone (an 11 play-70 yard- nail-in-the-coffin march down the field) the Badgers defense had plenty of chances to redeem themselves but failed to stop the Spartans on:....3rd and 9.....3rd & 11....3rd & 5....and 3rd & 8* (MSU gained 7 yards leading to a 4th down attempt which was converted for a TD)
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