This segment will "air" every Friday throughout the season. I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line. Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well. Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts. This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.
Agree to disagree? Leave your predictions for this week's game in the comments for this blog.
Season Record (ATS):
15-8
Great year this year. Regardless of the outcome on these bets this week, this season is a winner. Thanks for coming out and look for a special Bowl Edition of Walking the Line later on this year.
Last Week Recap:
Making Money! Walking the Line is happy to report a 2-0 weekend. Wisconsin covered the spread against Michigan without too much trouble, pushing the Wolverine's head down to swallow yet another loss ATS, for an overall conference ATS record of 0-7. Oklahoma also showed that they could play on the road and continued to push the Baylor Bear into hibernation mode (if they aren't fast asleep already). We pushed on the Iowa/OSU game, which came as a big relief - from a Badger standpoint. But that Iowa bet was the perfect example of insurance for the Rose Bowl. That could not have played out an better unless the OSU kicker missed the extra point.
Offense:
The Badgers come into this game licking their chops as NW gave up 330 yards to an individual RB last week. Clay's status is again uncertain for this week but UW has shown that they are more than comfortable without him. Considering the lack of performance by NW last week on D and the unstoppable display the Badgers put on in the 2nd half, I think they feel like they will be able to shred the Cats D. NW comes into Camp Randall struggling. After losing their starting QB in the 4th Quarter 2 weeks ago, their offense has been sluggish and unable to get going. All things considered, they should get better week after week as their backup QB gets more reps.
Defense:
The Badger D has really been getting the job done this year. With the lack of firepower from the Cats offense, UW should be able to pin their ears back and come out swinging. I would expect a very confident and aggressive bunch. There is blood in the water... and these sharks are swarming. NW, as previously mentioned, comes in with a serious limp. They gave up 330 yards rushing to one individual last week. Enough said.
Intangibles:
Wisconsin comes into this game with all of the Rose Bowl cards on the table and, regardless of what happens Saturday morning, knowing that NW is the last hurdle for a share of the Big Ten championship. The weather will be clear and on the cold side which should bode well for the physical style that UW will put on display on Saturday. Should there be a 3 way tie for the conference, Bucky will have to put their best foot forward to keep OSU below them in the polls. Bucky can't give these voters a reason to justify an OSU jump. Do I smell the Indiana game?
Walking the Line:
UW -23 O/U 57.5
The Badgers will be looking to put on a show for the pollsters. They will be potentially one significant win away from the Tournament of Roses. NW is a team that seems to have quit after last week's performance on D. Should that same effort be displayed at Camp Randall this week, then it will be an extremely long day for the people in purple. I really believe there is an Indiana sized ass whopping that is going to go down with the Badgers delivering blow after blow and score after score with little resistance.
I like UW-23 and a group of deserving Badgers with roses dangling from their mouths.
D DOGG Daily Double:
Below are 2 picks that I really like this week:
Michigan +17: I know, this goes against EVERYTHING that has ever been discussed as part of this blog. However, with the trip to the Rose Bow pending on an OSU victory, this is one hell of an insurance policy. This bet gives you a 17 point middle in which you can win money and have UW in the Rose Bowl. If you lose the bet, UW is in the Rose Bowl. If you win the bet and Michigan wins, at least you will have some extra scratch laying around.
Michigan State -1.5 : Another insurance bet although this has 1 point to throw you off and come up empty. With that said, a 1 point loss is rare in football so I feel good about it. Should things go bad in Columbus, this could be your chance to either cash in or get your Badgers to Pasadena. Either way, I like the insurance in this scenario. I went to the Rose Bowl 10 years ago and realized that you just never know when this opportunity will present itself again, so I'm coving my bases and swinging for the fence. I would gladly lose this bet if it means Wisconsin is synonymous with roses in 2010.