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Inside the Numbers: 2.5

...the average national ranking of Wisconsin's scoring defense in basketball (#1) and football (#4).

In basketball, its no surprise that Bo Ryan has his team leading the country through 6 games in scoring defense at just 39.2 pts/game and FG % defense at just 30.5%.   (This week's opponents, UNC and Marquette, are tied for 5th in the country in scoring offense at 88.0 pts/game)  The Badger offense has been equally as impressive especially  from the 3 pt line.  The Badgers rank 3rd in 3PT FG's per game with 11.3 and rank 2nd in 3PT FG % at 47.2%.  Josh Gasser leads the country at 71.4%.  Wisconsin has also assumed its familiar role as the nation's top team in assist-to-turnover ratio  at 1.94.  

In football,  after an impressive showing against a defense ranked among the top 10 in the country, the statistics show that no team has been better on both sides of the ball than the Badgers who rank #4 in scoring defense at 15.2 pts/game and #4 in scoring offense at 44.8 pts/game.  The Badgers' composite ranking  in total offense+scoring offense+total defense+scoring defense (6.75) blows away the next closest teams who just happen to be playing in the BCS title game: Alabama (12.3) and  LSU (19.75).   

 

Inside the Numbers: Week 6 Projected BCS standings

The Badgers moved up 1 spot to #6 without taking the field.  Boise St continues to lose ground and shouldn't be a factor down the stretch.  That leaves a pair of SEC teams (who play each other on Nov 5) and  a pair of Big 12 teams (who play each other on Dec 3) ahead of UW.    With plenty of tough games remaining for AL, LSU, OK, Ok St in addition to playing each other, its very possible that  3 of the top 4 teams suffer a loss by the end of the season.   If the Badgers can keep winning- things should work themselves out by early December.  Stanford should also be watched as they have the best chance to run the table and have a late game vs a top 10 Oregon team (Nov 12) to change the voters' and computers' minds about where they rank.

The Harris poll made its debut this week and the Badgers came in at #4 including 1 first place vote. Teh Badgers are also #4 with a 1st place vote in teh USA Today Coaches' poll.

		Coaches	Harris	CM	JS	KM	RB	cpu avg	BCS
1	Alabama	0.948	0.949	1	1	1	2	0.990	0.962
2	LSU	0.955	0.978	4	2	5	1	0.920	0.951
3	Oklahoma	0.972	0.944	2	3	3	3	0.930	0.949
4	Ok. St	0.792	0.800	3	5	2	5	0.890	0.827
5	Boise St	0.793	0.818	7	7	6	4	0.800	0.804
6	Wisconsin	0.843	0.846	14	6	14	7	0.630	0.773
7	Clemson	0.709	0.727	8	4	4	6	0.820	0.752
8	Stanford	0.835	0.799	12	15	23	9	0.450	0.695
9	Michigan	0.604	0.599	5	13	12	17	0.570	0.591
10	Oregon	0.675	0.660	29	16	37	8	0.280	0.538

For the official BCS standings, the CPU average is calculated using the middle 4 out of 6 computer rankings (highest and lowest rankings are thrown out). For the above projected standings, all 4 of the currently available computer rankings were used.

 

Inside the Numbers: 117

As a follow-up to this week's projected BCS standings where we noted the Badgers are currently ranked 8th by the computers- here's the primary reason why: strength of schedule.  The good news is that among the current top 10 teams in our projected standings, no one has more room to rise than UW in terms of SOS.  We might not see a jump in the standings over the next 2 weeks (bye, vs #113 IN) but be patient- UW has games remaining vs #33 MSU, #40 OSU, #22, IL, and #21 PSU(based on current BCS computer rankings).

current BCS rank		current strength of schedule
1	Alabama	15
2	LSU	26
3	Oklahoma	29
4	Boise St	21
5	Ok. St	24
6	Clemson	16
7	Wisconsin	117
8	Stanford	68
9	Texas	41
10	Oregon	30

 

 

 

 

 

Inside the Numbers: Week 5 Projected BCS Standings

Despite moving up to #4  in the human polls (combined AP and Coaches Poll rankings), the Badgers are still stuck at #7 in this week's BadgerFans.com projected BCS Standings.  

• According to the computers, UW is behind Clemson and Texas and tied with Michigan at #8. 
• Boise St. has no remaining games vs ranked opponents so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The human voters have dropped the Broncos two weeks in a row (from a combined #4 to #6) while the computers have raised them over the last three weeks (from #6 to #4)
• It may be possible for the Badgers  to move up during the bye week with OK playing TX and LSU playing FL this weekend.

		Coaches	AP	CM	JS	KM	RB	cpu avg	BCS
1	Alabama	0.955	0.957	1	1	2	2	0.980	0.964
2	LSU	0.956	0.982	7	2	6	1	0.880	0.939
3	Oklahoma	0.963	0.931	8	8	9	4	0.750	0.882
4	Boise St	0.804	0.832	9	6	4	3	0.820	0.819
5	Ok. St	0.788	0.794	6	7	3	5	0.830	0.804
6	Clemson	0.697	0.729	3	3	1	7	0.900	0.775
7	Wisconsin	0.838	0.844	14	4	22	6	0.580	0.754
8	Stanford	0.839	0.790	11	13	16	9	0.550	0.726
9	Texas	0.596	0.555	5	5	5	30	0.630	0.594
10	Michigan	0.548	0.541	2	16	8	20	0.580	0.556
11	Oregon	0.689	0.685	38	15	35	8	0.290	0.555

The official BCS standings include the USA Today Coaches Poll and the Harris Poll averaged with the middle 4 out of 6 computer rankings (highest and lowest rankings are thrown out). For the above projected standings, the AP poll was included in place of the Harris Poll and all 4 of the available computer rankings were used.

Inside the Numbers: Week 4 Projected BCS Standings

If the Badgers need any extra motivation this week, they can assume their familiar role as underdogs with something to prove.  Despite how Vegas may view the matchup (UW favored by 9 pts) and how the voters in  both major polls  may feel, our projected week 4 BCS standings have UW at #9 and Nebraska at #6. 

		Coaches	AP	CM	JS	KM	RB	cpu avg	BCS
1	LSU	0.952	0.9807	6	2	3	1	0.920	0.9508
2	Alabama	0.952	0.9420	5	1	9	4	0.850	0.9146
3	Oklahoma	0.972	0.9480	11	4	15	2	0.720	0.8801
4	Ok. St	0.795	0.8060	2	7	1	3	0.910	0.8369
5	Boise St	0.829	0.8533	15	3	4	5	0.770	0.8175
6	Nebraska	0.705	0.6607	4	11	7	9	0.730	0.6986
7	Stanford	0.831	0.8033	19	6	29	7	0.460	0.6979
8	S.Carolina	0.662	0.6333	3	12	2	10	0.770	0.6883
9	Wisconsin	0.784	0.7847	20	10	59	8	0.400	0.6561
10	Va Tech	0.634	0.5887	17	9	8	13	0.570	0.5975

The official BCS standings include the USA Today Coaches Poll and the Harris Poll averaged with the middle 4 out of 6 computer rankings (highest and lowest rankings are thrown out). For the above projected standings, the AP poll was included in place of the Harris Poll and all 4 of the available computer rankings were used.

 

Inside the Numbers: Projected BCS Standings

One of the computers used in the BCS rankings has the Badgers ranked #65 after 3 weeks. They say the computers are unbiased- preseason rankings are not considered...apparently neither are the first 3 games of the season.  Some other notables from the 4 computer rankings: Michigan #2, FIU#3, Yale #1, Nevada #12, Iowa St #3, OSU #116. 

And because its never too early in the season to start arguing about the BCS standings-  here is a BadgerFans.com exclusive: the week 3 Projected BCS standings.   We all know the system usually works itself out by the end of the year….but it's pretty clear that the standings are shaping up for another season of controversy.  Where does an undefeated Boise St end up? Is an undefeated PAC12 team ranked ahead of an undefeated Big10 team?  And you can already hear the complaints from a 1 loss SEC school.   Here are the projected standings as of today…

		Coaches Poll			CM	JS	KM	RB	cpu avg	BCS
1	Oklahoma	1	1463	0.9919	9	4	16	2	0.7300	0.9046
2	LSU	3	1373	0.9308	8	3	17	1	0.7500	0.8705
3	Alabama	2	1402	0.9505	19	1	21	7	0.5600	0.8203
4	Ok. St	6	1126	0.7634	4	9	15	3	0.7300	0.7523
5	Boise St	4	1212	0.8217	28	6	36	5	0.4100	0.6845
6	Stanford	5	1208	0.8190	29	13	100	4	0.3500	0.6627
7	Nebraska	9	966	0.6549	12	11	7	9	0.6500	0.6533
8	Wisconsin	7	1121	0.7600	24	16	65	8	0.3000	0.6067

The official BCS standings include the USA Today Coaches Poll and the Harris Poll averaged with the middle 4 out of 6 computer rankings (highest and lowest rankings are thrown out). For the above projectedstandings, the Coaches poll was double weighted and all 4 of the available computer rankings were used.  

Inside the Numbers: Northern Illinois

Denard Robinson 2.0?  Northern Illinois QB Chandler Harnish has been the story so far- compiling 340 total yds/game and leading the country in total scoring (rushing TDs + passing TDs) at 33 pts/ game .   Harnish is a dual threat QB- he currently ranks 51st in the country in rushing at 85 yds/game and almost 8 yds/carry. (among QBs- he ranks 6th) while also having great success throwing the ball- he ranks 6th in the country in passer efficiency rating after completing 75% of his passes for 255 yds/game with 7TDs and 1 int.

smash 'em:  statistics can get skewed when you play a team like Army but Northern Illinois is 117th in the country (out of 120 schools) against the run- allowing 278 yds/game.  (303 yds vs Army and 253 yds vs Kansas). 

smash 'em (part 2):  NIU's offensive line isn't too far behind the Badgers' highly ranked unit. The Husky O-Line averages 6'4", 318 pounds, all five of the starters are upperclassmen and have plenty of experience (116 starts).  Phil Steele's 2011 College Football Preview publication had the NIU offensive line ranked No. 4 in the nation.

3rd downs:  NIU's offense has been especially good on 3rd downs- converting 15 out of 21 chances (71%- the 2nd best mark in the country) while their defense has allowed 58% 1st down conversions by their opponents (the 3rd worst mark in the country).

starting fast:  The Huskies have raced out to early double digit leads  in both of their games so far-scoring TDs on 5 of their first 6 possessions vs Army and scoring  TDs on 3 of their first 4 drives vs Kansas.

Inside the Numbers: (.314)

87 wins and 190 losses (.314 winning pct)....the combined record of UWs non- conference opponents during the Badgers' 29 game non-conference winning streak.

 Borrowing from an article in today's Wall Street  Journal, Wisconsin has had the easiest non-conference schedule of any team in a BCS conference during its 29 game winning streak.   This week's opponent, Oregon St, happens to have had the toughest non-conference schedule over the same span.  Judging by the Beavers' week 1 loss to D1-AA Sacramento St and UW's #8 ranking in this week's AP poll....the strength of schedule rankings wont be changing after this weekend.

see "Why Beavers Are Braver Than Badgers" 

Inside the Numbers: 54

....the size differential (in average pounds) between UW’s starting offensive line and UNLV’s starting defensive line.  The Rebel D-line  averages 6’2” and 268 lbs (throw in a smallish set of LB’s and the front seven averages just 249 lbs) compared to UW’s massive offensive line which averages 6’5” and 322 lbs.

Last season UNLV ranked 116th against the run- allowing 223 yds/game including 275 yards by UW and an impressive 374 yds by Nevada.

Inside the Numbers: RUSSELL WILSON

 In case you missed INSIDE THE NUMBERS  last month....Badger fans-  here’s a look at what our next QB  has done over his career:

• 10th in the country last season in total offense per game at 308 yards per game…which ranked ahead of  2010 NCAA all-americans Cam Newton (1st team), Andrew Luck (2nd team), and Kellen Moore (3rd team).
• In 2009, Wilson ranked 19th in the country in total offense at 272 yards per game—which ranked ahead of 2009 Heisman Trophy finalists Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy.
• Wilson has ran or passed for 93 TD’s in 36 career games- ranking him 2nd in the NCAA among active players.
• Wilson’s 76 TD passes in just 3 seasons is the 3rd highest mark in ACC History behind only Phillip Rivers and Chris Weinke.
• Wilson has rushed for 1,083  yards in his career.
• Wilson has thrown for over 300 yards in a game 12 times in his career- including 8 times last season.
• Wilson has a career touchdown to interception ratio of 3.6 to 1. 
•  In 2009, Wilson set an NCAA record by attempting 379 consecutive passes without throwing an interception.