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Walking the Line - Bye Week

This segment will "air" every Friday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Agree to disagree?  Leave your predictions for this week's game in the comments for this blog.

Season Record (ATS):

9- 4

Last Week Recap:

My first perfect week on Walking the Line since adding in the D Dogg Daily Double.   I went with 3 overs (UW/Iowa, MSU/NW and Purdue/OSU).  Although the OSU OVER seemed to be in the bag by half, I predicted it correctly saying that OSU "could potentially hit the over alone".  3-0 weeks are really good for the ego but, just like a college team with a big win, you have to look out for the let down week following.  Here we go!  There is no Badger game so I will just pick 2 games for this weekend. 

D DOGG Daily Double:

Below are 2 picks that I really like this week:

Navy -13.5:  Navy hosts Duke who has been absolutely aweful on the road.  Navy is coming off of a nice win vs an overrated Notre Dame team, but one that is much better than Duke.  Duke can't stop the run and they are ranked 95th in rushing defense, 88th in points scored and 114th in points given up.  Not a good recipe when you are playing Navy who is 9th in the country in rushing. 

Washington State +21: WSU has been a money maker for me this year.  They have scored points in every game and they rarely lost by more than 21 points this entire year.  Going to ASU is hardly a huge feat.  Dennis Erickson is half way out the door.  WSU has a shot at actually winning this one.  I think they will be able to keep it in reach and the 21 should be enough to put them on top.

Walking the Line - @ Iowa

This segment will "air" every Friday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Agree to disagree?  Leave your predictions for this week's game in the comments for this blog.

Season Record (ATS):

6- 4

Last Week Recap:

Another moneymaker...going 2-1 last week on Walking the Line.  With OSU minus the points to Wisconsin, I'm ok taking that loss.  Michigan was the pig I expected.  WSU continued to put up some points which always helps when you are getting +23.5 for the game.  Also adding to the allure of betting on that game is the fact that Arizona is not that good and they are riding the headlines of a lucky, early season win at home vs. Iowa. 

Offense:

Wisconsin takes on a very tough and established defense for the second week in a row, only this week it comes on the road at Iowa.  Coming off one of the most dominating wins, arguably, in recent Badger history, the offense will be asked to repeat its performance.  This spells disaster in most cases.  UW looks good on paper for this match up.  Can they do it?  Iowa has been really comfortable at home this year.  They continue their 2010 campaign with senior signal caller  Ricky Stanzi who has started the previous 3 seasons.  He has thrown for 1,474 yards and 13 TDs this season, surrendering only 2 INTs.  Stanzi does a good job distributing the ball as 5 recievers are in double digits for catches, led by Derrell Johnson-Koulianos with 25 for 404 yards and 7 TDs.  Iowa has a feature back system with Adam Robinson who has 623 yards on a 4.8 yard average with 8 TDs. 

Defense:

Iowa could pose problems for the Badgers this week as they will offer a very balanced attack of run and pass.  The most balanced offense that the Badgers have faced to date was MSU, which ended poorly for the Badgers.  I expect Iowa to learn a thing or two on how to attack this defense with balance play calling and screen plays.  This could be a very similar outing to the MSU game for UW.  Iowa enters this game with a very highly tauted defense...well balanced and talent is evident at every position.  However, as highlighted in our weekly "Inside the Numbers" blog, this defense may not be all it is cracked up to be on paper.  They have given up a lot of points in the only two games played vs decent teams... 27 to Arizona and 28 to Michigan.  Iowa's crown jewel is the DL, which returns all 4 starters from last years dominating team.  Iowa's ability to stop Clay and White reside in what these 4 guys/men do on the field this Saturday.

Intangibles:

One thing is for sure when these two teams play, there is plenty at stake.  Barry Alvarez coached at Iowa under famed coach Hayden Fry where Iowa's current head coach, Kirk Ferentz, was also on the staff.  The two are not strangers.  Not only did UW's current coach, Bret Bielema, play at Iowa, he also bears a hawkeye tattoo on his calf.  As of late, Iowa has had Wisconsin's number, going 6-2 in their last 8 match-ups.  UW is coming off their biggest win this season after knocking off #1 Ohio State a week ago.  In that sense, this is a classic "let down" game recipe.  One saving grace for the Badgers is that they have already been humbled by a loss on the road this season and if BB is worth his paycheck, they will learn from that and come out swinging.

Walking the Line:

UW +6    O/U 48

Wisconsin was really able to mix up their play calling last week and keep OSU guessing all game.  Amazing what a balanced, unpredictable game plan can do for a team.  I'm not expecting UW to come out in this game with the same mentality but I do think UW will ride that dominating energy from a week ago and be able to run on this Iowa defensive line.  Special teams have been a circus for UW this year, either giving up a TD or scoring a TD in every major contest this year.  Scary.  Iowa brings a MSU-like style on offense and when the Badgers D is on their heels, it is easy to move the ball on them.  A lot is at stake.  Both teams can beat each others defense, so I think there will be points scored on Saturday.

I like OVER 48 which will provide a comfortable cover at Kinnick.

D DOGG Daily Double:

Below are 2 picks that I really like this week:

Michigan St @ Northwestern OVER 53:  Both teams have scored and scored often all season long.  This game will be a shootout and if MSU isn't careful, they could find themselves down late in this game.  Both teams like to pass so that will slow down the clock.  I'm looking for NW to come out and give up on the run game early which will only buy time.

Purdue @ Ohio State OVER 47: OSU will be looking to revenge its defeat at the hands of the Badgers last week and could potentially hit the over alone.  If Purdue can muster a couple of TDs, this one should be money in the bank.

Walking the Line - @ Michigan State

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Agree to disagree?  Leave your predictions for this week's game in the comments for this blog.

Season Record (ATS):

2 - 1

Last Week Recap:

Last week was a much needed week off for the WtL staff.  After a brutally intoxicating weekend in Madison for the ASU game, the brain wasn't exactly hitting on all cylinders.  Although there were some reports of lines being posted on various sites (anywhere from -40 to -45) this was not a game that was touched by most credible sites so we capitalized, got some rest and are ready to get this conference schedule kicked off.

Offense:

UW comes into this game tits a blazing.  Against Austin Peay, the UW offense was able to muster 10 TD scoring drives and just dominated the Governors.  It appears that the Badgers will have both Nick Toon and David Gilreath back in the line-up this week which will give QB Scott Tolzien a couple more weapons, other than Kendricks, to attack Sparty through the air.  MSU enters this game with an almost mirror image of what the Badgers look like on this side of the ball.  They have two fantastic options at RB in both Edwin Baker (57 carries, 449 yards, 5 td) and Le'Veon Bell (48, 396, 7) and a proven, steady QB in Kirk Cousins (67%, 863 yards, 6 td, 2 int).  Cousins' main targets this year have been B.J. Cunningham (14 catches, 190 yards, 2 td), Keshawn Martin (14, 185, 1) and Mark Dell (10, 172, 0).

Defense:

The Badgers defense has proven to be tough against the run.  UW has yet to answer the question of who will fill the shoes of Chris Borland, who is out for the remainder of the season, and this trip to East Lansing will force UW to answer those questions quickly.  The ever-present question mark in the Badger's defensive backfield will definitely be put to the test, especially if UW has a 2nd half lead.  UW's pass defense will need a little something extra out of J.J. Watt and Louis Nzegwu.  Again, MSU comes in with a similar story...tough thus far against the run and suspect in the secondary.  MSU's player to watch is LB Greg Jones who comes into this season as a front runner in just about every defense award possible.  Jones is the Webster's Dictionary definition of Man-Child.

Key Match-up:

MSU's LB Greg Jones vs UW's TE Lance Kendricks and RB John Clay.  Jones is noted for his ability in pass coverage.  If Jones can take away Kendricks 1 on 1, that will free up the safeties to work on Toon and Gilreath.  If Kendricks can stay a step or two ahead of Jones, it will force the MSU safeties to get involved which will put either Toon or Gilreath in single coverage where UW should be able to exploit them.  In regards to the run game, Jones vs Clay is just good old fashioned (brandy of course) Big Ten smash mouth, hat on hat football.  This is the best of the best in the Big Ten and the two have caught the nation's eye.  Sit back, try to relax and enjoy the fight.

Walking the Line:

UW -2    O/U 53.5

This is the best game in the Big Ten this weekend and the lines across the conference prove it.  I'm looking for MSU to come out and take the early lead as they will be energized from an electric home crowd and, more importantly, the return of their coach - Mark Dantonio - from a minor heart attack suffered the night after their victory over Notre Dame.  I also expect to see MSU with some early success running the ball before the Badgers can adjust to their life without Borland, call it UW's grieving period.  Expect UW to weather the storm, however, and come out swinging in the 2nd half.  Although Clay vs Jones is the heavy weight match-up that everyone will be watching, don't fall asleep on the under-card.  Lost in the Clay/Jone shuffle is one, Mr. White, who could become Saturday's game breaker (and no, MSU fans, I'm not talking about Lorenzo).  I expect this game to be close but dominated by the Badgers.

I like UW -2 with UW's under-card making the difference.

Walking the Line - Austin Peay (aka WtL Bye Week)

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Season Record (ATS):

2 - 1

Last Week Recap:

Last week's ASU rendition of "Walking the Line" put me back on top with a no-doubter.  UW did get out of Camp Randall with the win - so sorry for those of you that are even more behind on rent right now - but the game was in limbo towards the end.  Besides the special teams play (or lack there of), I had this pretty much nailed.

Walking the Line:

No Line

Due to lack of a formidable opponent this week, there is not a line on this game so Week 4 is a bye week for Walking the Line and it could not have come at a better time.  I will be resting my liver and clearing up my alcohol saturated brain so that I can enter the Big Ten season all kinds of dialed in.  Although I'm dumber today than I was last week due to my trip to Madison...I would like to thank the city as it did not disappoint.  Great times.

Walking the Line - Arizona State

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Season Record (ATS):

1 - 1

Last Week Recap:

Last week's rendition of "Walking the Line"proved that I am, in fact, human.  Bucky put on a sub-par performance for their season home opener.  Turnovers continue to haunt this team and it is a bit concerning that SJS was able to hang 14 points and throw for 225+.  As is with Wisconsin football, they are very rarely impressive in out of conference games.

Offense:

Pretty cut and dry here, UW needs to take care of the ball.  With 3 turnovers inside the 5 yard line in 2 games, this trend poses a major threat to their undefeated record.  Early reports have Gilreath and Toon out for this Saturday's match-up so that will put a bigger burden on Kendricks to stretch the field to aid in the running game.  ASU comes into this contest 2-0 with an unimpressive victory last week over NAU.  The Sun Devils like to throw it around and do so with Threet, a former Michigan QB, who has a big arm.  ASU has plenty of speed and talent at the WR position.  They have 13 players on their roster that have registered catches this season already.

Defense:

UW's secondary, who is coming into the season as arguably the biggest question mark on this team, will be put to the test in this match-up.  They will need to a) play the games of their lives and b) need pressure on the QB by the DL and LBs and c) force multiple turnovers.  The way the secondary plays this week could dictate UW opponent's game plans for the rest of this season.  ASU will have to answer the million dollar question that all opponents will be asked coming into a game vs the Badgers: Will they be able to stop John Clay?  With UW missing Toon and Gilreath, it will allow them to go all hands on deck to try and stop the run game.

Intangibles:

Weather: the weather looks to be on the cool and damp side for Saturday.  This could freeze up some of ASU's speed as they have been in the sun for the past 2 months.  Injuries: With reports of Gilreath and Toon out for this game, UW will be challenged to stretch the field.  Records at Camp Randall: ASU is 1-0, Threet is 1-0, Coach Erickson is 2-0.

Walking the Line:

UW -14      O/U  46.5

ASU has an uncanny knack to spot their opponents points right out of the gate.  Look for UW to continue the trend and score first, but that shouldn't give UW a false sense of security.  Also look for UW to take the ball out of Tolzien's hands because of his inability to take care of the ball this season.  I expect UW to come out with a conservative, ball control gameplan with hopes of wearing down the ASU defensive front as well as keeping ASU's pass happy offense off the field.  Run, run and more run.    Conversely, ASU won't be able to run the ball vs UW so they will go to the air and go there often.  This one will come down to Defense.  Who will answer the call:  UW's secondary or ASU's run D?  Between the conservative gameplan and the quick strike potential of ASU's offense, I expect this game to be uncomfortably close all afternoon.

The general betting public liked the Sun Devils early this week as the line has moved a good 2 - 3 points on most sites before settling at 14. 

I still like ASU at +14... and if you are behind on rent, consider the moneyline.

Side Bet: I'm setting the O/U for personal fouls against ASU LB Vontaze Burfect at 1.5....take the over.  Burfect (#7) is the closest thing to a wild animal in a human body that I have ever seen.  Pure CRAZY.

Walking the Line - San Jose St

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Season Record (ATS):

1 - 0

Last Week Recap:

Last week's rendition of "Walking the Line" couldn't have been more spot on...almost to the point that I should retire this column.  But as we all know, when you're hot, you're hot.  So I will continue on in the pursuit of financial happiness.

Offense:

Look for the 3 headed beast of a Wisconsin running game to roll (and I don't say this lightly) over the Spartans.  SJS comes in as one of the worst college football team in the country and their week spot is stopping the run.  Not a good attribute when playing the 2010 Badgers.  SJS has been synonymous with the spread offence throughout the years but with a new coach, Mike MacIntyre, comes a new, run first, philosophy (see UNLV).  This team will be in no shape to do damage to the UW defense.

Defense:

See above.  UW will shut the door on the Spartans...regardless of what string is on the field.  UW is just too talented and too deep.  As for SJS, the only glimmer they have on defense is a potentially nice defensive backfield but due to the nature of this game and UW's strength in the run game, I wouldn't expect them to be tested much.

Walking the Line:

UW -38      O/U  54

Look for this one to be over when SJS gets off the bus.  Wisconsin will be relentless with the ground game and will be scoring at will.  Too bad for SJS that UW's 3rd string RB will be more talented, arguably, than any they will see in their entire conference season.  I feel there is an outside shot at a Badger shut out on Saturday in Camp Randall.

I like UW -38 and "running" away with it...pun intended.

Walking the Line - @ UNLV

This segment will "air" every Thursday throughout the season.  I will breakdown the upcoming game and give a prediction as it relates to the betting line.  Sure, this is aimed at our degenerate gambler fans but I think it will be informative for the non-betting folks as well.  Feel free to post a comment regarding your thoughts.  This segment is meant to be unbiased as the only color that matters here is green - as in US currency.

Offense:

UW comes in with all kinds of accolades this season.  A returning QB, a Heisman hyped RB, a deep OL, untapped potential at WR and a real treat at TE.  UNLV, on the other hand, has had a QB competition throughout its entire camp, a returning RB from last season who rushed for 541 yards, 4 returning starters on the OL and not much to talk about as it relates to WR or TE.

Defense:

UW has some potential questions marks in the DL and secondary.  There are good reports out of camp as to how these guys are performing but until it happens on game day, I'm not sold.  UNLV's Defense was terrible last year and could not stop the run to save their lives.  UNLV returns an experience DB crew but experience doesn't always result in good... which I feel is the case here.

Intangibles:

UNLV is at home and comfortable there.  In the past 5 seasons, 81% of their wins were at home.  Weather - Saturday has a high of 107, expect game time temps in the 90's.

Walking the Line: 

UW -20.5    O/U 57.5

UNLV comes into this contest totally over-matched.  With that said, they also come into this game with a new coaching regime led by former Montana Grizzley head coach Bobby Hauck.  Hauck comes into this program with nothing but success in his wake.  He has gotten rid of the UNLV spread offense and is committed to being a physical, run first style offense.  I expect Hauck will use this game (specifically UW) as an example to the UNLV football program of what it will need to be to be a winner.  Expect UW to jump out of the gates early with some early first half points and continue their lead into the second half.  Due to the heat/cramps/potential for injury, I expect to see some of the Badger familiars on the sidelines in the 4th quarter.  I also expect to see Hauck turn to the 2nd qb for a spark in the second half...and get it.  Look out for late UNLV score vs a predominently 2nd string defense on the field for UW.

I like UNLV + 20.5 with a "turned off tv cover".